巴菲特1990年致股东的信（英文版）

To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Last year, we predicted that "within three years, there will be at least one year in which Berkshire's net worth will decline." For most of 1990, it appeared that this prediction was about to come true. However, year-end stock price increases resulted in a net worth increase for Berkshire Hathaway of $362 million, a growth rate of 7.3% (the S&P 500 declined by 3.1%). Since the current management took over 26 years ago, the book value per share has grown from $19.46 to $4,612.06, a compound annual growth rate of approximately 23.2%.

Our growth in 1990 was lackluster due to little change in the aggregate market value of the four major stock holdings we own. Last year, I mentioned to you that despite these companies (Capital Cities/ABC, Coca-Cola, GEICO, and The Washington Post) having outstanding businesses and exceptional management, the widespread recognition of these qualities had driven their stock prices to high levels. Since then, the shares of the two media companies have declined significantly—due to industry factors that I will discuss in detail later—while Coca-Cola's stock has risen markedly for reasons that I believe are valid. Overall, the year-end prices of these four "permanent holdings" of ours, while still not particularly attractive, were more so than a year earlier.

Berkshire's 26-year record is meaningless as a predictor of future results; similarly, we hope that one year's results are also meaningless. We continue to target an average annual increase in intrinsic value of 15%. But as we have constantly reminded you, with the increase in our capital base—now at $5.3 billion—this goal is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve.

Most of the extra value that we possess is created by the managers now running these businesses. Charlie and I take pride in this team because we have had nothing to do with the development of their skills: these superstars came that way. Our job is to identify talented managers and provide them with an environment in which they can flourish. Once they do, cash is remitted to headquarters, and another task that confronts us is the intelligent deployment of these funds.

My personal role in operations can best be illustrated by a little story about my granddaughter Emily's fourth birthday party last fall. Other children, beloved relatives, and the local clown, P.T. Barnum, who added a magic act to his performance, were in attendance.

Overall, insurance has been very good to us. We increased our float at a reasonable average cost, and since we have earned a good return on these low-cost funds, the business has prospered further. Of course, our shareholders have taken on an extra tax burden, but so far, the benefits of the float have more than offset this cost.

Particularly gratifying is that this has occurred despite some significant mistakes made by your Chairman prior to the arrival of Mike Goldberg. The insurance business provides many opportunities to make mistakes, and when the occasion arises, I respond. Years later, bills for these mistakes arrive: in the insurance business, foolishness is timeless.

The intrinsic value of our insurance business has always been more difficult to calculate than that of businesses such as candy or newspapers. However, by any measure, the value of the business far exceeds its book value. Moreover, despite the occasional problems it has caused us, it is by far the most valuable of all our good businesses.

Borsheims usually does not open for business on Sundays, but it will make an exception during the shareholders' meeting. On Sunday, April 28, from noon to 6 p.m., Ike was quite pleased with the performance last year, and after seeing the figures for that day, he suggested that we should hold the shareholders' meeting every quarter. Remember to visit Borsheims this year, even if you don't buy anything—it's a show you don't want to miss.

The first question at last year's annual meeting was posed by 11-year-old Nicholas Kenner from New York. Three generations of his family are Berkshire shareholders. Nicholas started off with a tough one: "Why did the stock price drop?" Faced with such a powerful opening, my answer was somewhat evasive.

I hope other matters won't prevent Nicholas from attending this year's meeting. If he does, he may have the chance to ask the first question again; Charlie and I hope to catch him off guard while he's not at his best. But this year, Charlie gets to go first.

Warren E. Buffett Chairman March 1, 1991.